With schedule of five graded Derby prep races, numerous hopefuls face a test of talent today to compete for a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. Many of the horses have difficult questions to answer relating to their ability to handle a higher grade, a change in distance, and tougher adversaries in the field.
In this moment of ambiguity, one thing is certain. The landscape of the Derby trail will be altered by tonight. As we approach the starting gates, the answers lie within the cards of five races.
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II). The $250,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes has drawn a field of ten contenders – including the early favorites Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint. With the top three finishers earning an automatic nomination for a highly-coveted spot in the Florida Derby, a major breeding ground for Kentucky Derby winners, this race card tops the Saturday line-up.
Among the contenders, Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint are likely to finish at the top of the stretch. In seven starts, Jackson Bend has proven himself a legitimate Derby hopeful by capturing five victories and harboring earnings of $477,820. Although Jackson Bend was beaten by Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes, he delivered an honorable second place finish – beaten only by three-quarters of a length and closing a strong second by running 3 1/4 lengths in front of the rest of the field.
However, Buddy’s Saint also stands as a top-notch contender and has demonstrated the force to strike a win in his three-year-old debut. Of his three starts in 2009, Buddy’s Saint captured two wins in Grade 2 races. In his most recent race, the $200,000 Remsen Stakes, he tracked the leader throughout the race to clinch a 4 ¾-length victory in the final stretch. Prior to the Remsen, Buddy’s Saint dominated the $150,000 Grade 2 Nashua Stakes, winning by twelve lengths at the wire.
Eskendereya, with morning line odds of 5-1, remains a noteworthy rival for Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint. This hopeful, trained by Todd Pletcher, has delivered two wins in four career starts. Although Eskendereya closed his 2009 season with a disappointing ninth place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (Gr. I), he recently clinched a first-place finish in an ungraded race this past January amidst a relatively large field. The Fountain of Youth is the first Grade 2 career start for Eskendereya. With a Grade 3 win in his 2009 season, it remains to be determined whether he can handle Grade 2 contenders after coming up short at the Grade 1 level in his two-year-old season.
The remaining seven horses in the field are Aikenite, Pulsion, Pleasant Prince, Prince Will I Am, Positive Split, Lost Aptitude, and Ice Box. Although many favor Aikenite, with morning line odds of 6-1, his sole first-place finish was his maiden race and he has consecutively dropped in order of finish in his subsequent races. Ice Box and Lost Aptitude seem to be better long shot picks.
Risen Star Stakes. (Grade II) The contenders in the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes vary dramatically in depth and proven ability in their journey toward the Derby. Although the overall field appears somewhat green in experience, four horses stand out among the twelve hopefuls.
The morning line favorite, Ron the Greek, has won three of his last four starts. Possibly, his most impressive win came in the Lecomte Stakes in January, where he passed nine other horses in the last five furlongs to capture a win.
Drosselmeyer, the second-favorite in odds, has demonstrated tremendous potential in recent months. Having won his last two races on dirt by several furlongs, it will be difficult for the rest of the field to catch him if he makes a similar romp in the stretch.
In November, Drosselmeyer broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by driving clear in the final furlongs and securing a flashy win that clearly bested his contenders. After his maiden victory, he returned to Gulfstream in January and drove down the stretch in a nine-furlong win during an entry-level allowance race.
Stay Put and Discreetly Mine are both impressive horses at this early stage in their career. Stay Put, has won his last two races, rallying from the back of the pack to secure a win in his three-year-old debut. Discreetly Mine has demonstrated his ability to handle a field of difficult contenders – having already placed in a Grade 1 race. It will be interesting to see how the talent of these two horses plays out in this race since this is a largely untested field.
Hutcheson Stakes. (Grade II) The final Grade 2 Derby prep today is the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Of the eight-horse card, Wildcat Frankie, D’Funnybone, and A Little Warm are the morning line favorites in the field.
Wildcat Frankie, with odds of 4-1, has won two of his last three races. He finished second to fellow contender, A Little Warm, in the Spectacular Bid Stakes during his three-year-old debut last month. A Little Warm, with odds of 3-1, took five races to break his maiden, but has won his last two races – namely, his maiden win and The Spectacular Bid Stakes.
D’Funnybone is the 2-1 odds-favorite in the Hutcheson – winning three of his last five starts. He is possibly the most tested horse in the field. He has already faced a Grade 1 start in his two-year-old career, The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – in which he finished thirteenth in the race. The drop to a Grade 2 race may work to his advantage.
Southwest Stakes. (Grade III) The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes is the first graded prep on Oaklawn’s road to the $1 million Arkansas Derby (Gr. I). After being postponed due to track conditions at Oaklawn Park last Monday, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes will be run today. Of the ten-horse card, three horses stand out among the contenders.
The 7-2 odds-favorite, Conveyance, has remained undefeated in his three starts and is emerging as a well-respected Derby hopeful. Conveyance recently made his three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes– clinching a 1 3/4-length victory over his rivals.
The second-favorite in odds, Dryfly, has an impressive early record of three wins in four races. Arguably, his most notable race was his recent win in the Smarty Jones Stakes during his three-year-old debut. Among a large field of contenders, Dryfly, ridden by Calvin Borel, managed to clinch a 2 1/4-length victory in a stylish performance.
Finally, Dublin, with odds of 5-1, has more to prove against his two main rivals in the Southwest Stakes. At present, his crowning achievement was a Grade 1 win in September of 2009. Since that victory, Dublin has not placed in his past two races. Dublin recently underwent minor throat surgery. In today’s return to the track, he is making his first start at two turns.
El Camino Real Derby. (Grade III) The Grade 3, $150,000 El Camino Real Derby, Northern California’s main stepping-stone into the Kentucky Derby, is shaping up to be a match race between Ranger Heartley and Connemara.
Ranger Heartley, with odds of 5-2, has won four of his last six races. In his most recent win, Ranger Heartley beat rival, Connemara, in the California Derby on January 16, 2010. However, Connemara finished a close second to Ranger Heartley in that race – losing by three-quarter-length margin. This past November, Connemara won an allowance race at Santa Anita, with Ranger Heartley placing third in that outing. With the early talent demonstrated by both horses, the El Camino Real Derby may go down to the wire in a match race between these two contenders.
