Although the final Kentucky Derby starters won’t enter the gates at Churchill Downs for over two months, several horses have begun to emerge in the prep races as early hopefuls for the first Saturday in May. I’ll admit it. It is premature to cement any horse in Derby contention as anything other than a hopeful at this stage. The field for the Derby will transform itself many times in the upcoming months with unexpected turns and challenges as it does every season. However, at this early stage, here is a rundown of the major prospects.
Lookin at Lucky
Lookin at Lucky. It would be impossible to start any discussion of Derby hopefuls without mentioning the generally-regarded favorite, Lookin at Lucky. Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert has maintained the quiet supremacy afforded to this horse without even having run Lookin at Lucky in one start this season. Further, he has stated that Lookin at Lucky will only run in two prep races in hopes of clinching a slot in the gate at the Kentucky Derby.
So, what is so spectacular about the mysterious Looking at Lucky? In his six starts, four of which were Grade 1 races, Lookin at Lucky has only succumbed to a single defeat – The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
During the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, Lookin at Lucky lost by a head after struggling with a bad trip throughout the race. At the start of the race, Lookin at Lucky was wide early, got stuck in midpack while facing a slow pace, rallied wide, and was ultimately outfinished from the inside by Vale of York. When interviewed after the Juvenile, Baffert stood firm. “We know we have a legit horse, we just didn’t get paid.”
Since the Juvenile defeat, he captured a win in the Breeder’s Cup Cash Call Futurity in December of 2009. Under jockey Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky won by three-quarters of a length, after making several different moves throughout the race, to kick clear at the wire to secure a win. “Hell of a day, huh?” Baffert remarked in a post-race interview. “He’s getting better and better.”
Select videos of Lookin at Lucky’s past performances are available here for the Cash Call Futurity (1st), Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (2nd) , Norfolk Stakes (1st), and Del Mar Futurity (1st).
Buddy’s Saint. Buddy’s Saint is another strong candidate at this early stage in Derby prep races. Of his three starts in 2009, Buddy’s Saint captured two wins in Grade 2 races. In his most recent race, the $200,000 Remsen Stakes, Buddy’s Saint tracked the leader throughout the race to clinch a 4 ¾-length victory in the final stretch.
Prior to the Remsen, Buddy’s Saint dominated the $150,000 Grade 2 Nashua Stakes, winning by twelve lengths at the wire. He is expected to run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20, 2010 – competing against two other major hopefuls - Jackson Bend and Eskendereya.
Super Saver. It would be impossible to ignore this horse with the powerhouse team that catapulted Super Saver into his flashy first-place finish at the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Super Saver, owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Todd Pletcher, made an amazing romp toward a victory under rider Calvin Borel in the Jockey Club Stakes. In the upcoming prep races, it will be interesting to see if this horse has the ability to give a repeat performance and capture a Grade 1 win.
Jackson Bend
Jackson Bend. In seven starts, Jackson Bend has proven himself a legitimate Derby hopeful by capturing five victories and harboring earnings of $477,820. He was beaten by Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes, but still delivered an honorable second place finish. Prior to the Holy Bull, he was unbeaten in five consecutive starts and remains a strong hopeful – especially considering the depth of his experience in comparison to his other rivals at this stage. He is expected to race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20, 2010 in his next endeavor to remain on the Derby trail.
Rule. Rule has emerged as a serious contender among Derby hopefuls – having closed out his two-year-old campaign with three consecutive victories and, more recently, capturing a win in the Grade 3 $225,000 Sam. F. Davis Stakes.
In the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Rule drove toward the finish and won by three-lengths over a field of well-respected rivals. It remains to be seen if he can match his Sam F. Davis performance in a Grade 1 race. After the Sam F. Davis, trainer Todd Pletcher did not point toward the next prep race for Rule – but mentioned the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, or Wood Memorial among the options being considered.
Dryfly. With a record of three wins in four races, Dryfly is gaining respect as a Derby hopeful after his impressive win at the Smarty Jones Stakes in his three-year-old debut. Among a large field of contenders, Dryfly, ridden by Calvin Borel, managed to clinch a 2 1/4-length victory in a stylish performance. As with many other early hopefuls, it remains to be seen how he will handle a Grade 1 race. However, judging by his current record, he remains a strong early contender.
Eskendereya. This hopeful, trained by Todd Pletcher, has delivered two wins in four career starts. Although Eskendereya closed his 2009 season with a disappointing ninth place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, this hopeful has re-emerged as an interesting contender in the 2010 season.
This past January, Eskendereya clinched a first-place finish during an ungraded race in a relatively large field. After the win, Pletcher showed confidence in his horse, stating that “The Fountain of Youth is a possibility, although I don’t know if he needs to wait that long to come back… The one thing I am sure of is that getting a mile and one-eighth will be no problem.” It remains to be determined whether this horse is capable of matching Pletcher’s confidence with ability to conquer a Grade 1 race.
Noble's Promise
Noble’s Promise. Noble’s Promise has established himself as a legitimate Derby hopeful through showing the capacity to deliver a respectable performance in repeated Grade 1 races. Of his six starts, Noble’s Promise has clinched three wins – including a victory in the Grade 1 Dixiana Breeder’s Futurity. With the demonstrated capacity to consistently win or place while taking on serious rivals in the Juvenile Breeder’s Cup (third) and the Cash Call Futurity (second), Noble’s Promise is one of the few hopefuls who has proven his capacity to manage the difficulty of a Grade 1 race
Conveyance. In his three starts, this Bob Baffert-trained horse has remained undefeated and is emerging as a respectable Derby hopeful. Conveyance recently made his three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes – clinching a 1 3/4-length victory over his rivals. Conveyance is expected to race again in the Southwest Stakes on February 15.
